Intro

We take a lot of decisions each day. I think it is really worth studying how to take better decisions. In the next sections, you will find my strategy and a lot of useful Mental models that you can use

My decision-making strategy

1. Define carefully the problem you’re going to solve.
   1. Challenge the problem itself (understand if it is the right problem!)
   2. Define urgency and priority (Eisenhower matrix)
2. List the possible options
   1. Brainstorming
   2. Search for other inputs online
   3. Search for advice from experts
3. List Pros and Cons
   1. Check for different timeframes
   2. Be as data-driven as possible
4. Query your values and your desires
   1. If you can, prototype (Design your Life book)
5. Take a decision
6. Commit to it
   1. Don’t look back (at least for a while)
7. Evaluate after T time
8. Iterate over your decision

You can find a diagram of my process here:

Mental models

In addition, you can choose to apply a lot of different tools.

• Regret Minimization Framework
  • The Risk Not Taken
  • Jeff Bezos
    • Video
• Fear Management
  • Tim Ferriss Fear Setting
• Paradox of Choice
  • Barry Schwartz’s TED Talk
    • Embrace certain voluntary constraints on your choices.
    • Opt for “good enough” instead of always seeking the best.
    • Lower your expectations.
    • Make your decisions non-reversible.
    • Pay less attention to other people.
• Farnam Street
  • What matters more, analysis or process?
  • Decision is not Outcome (awesome)
  • The Decision Matrix (gg Eisenhower!)
  • Anatomy of a Decision (compare the process here with mine!)
  • The Anatomy of a Great Decision
    • Using principles, not tactics.
    • Big on methods, poor on fundamentals
  • How to Make Smart Decisions Without Getting Lucky (very good)
  • Decisions Under Uncertainty (it’s a series of posts)
  • Decision Journal (template included)
  • The role of Empathy in Decision Making
  • Mental Models
    • The Value of Probabilistic Thinking
      • Thinking in Bets
      • Bayesian Thinking
        • Arbital
        • Video by Julia Galef
    • Bias from Self-Interest
    • Inversion: The Power of Avoiding Stupidity
  • List of all articles in Category: Decision Making
• Engineering Problems vs Design Problem (Designing your Life)
  • Brainstorm
  • Plan
  • Prototype
  • Decide
• Eisenhower Matrix
  • Eisenhower Matrix: Master Productivity and Eliminate Noise
• Cognitive Biases
  • Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human Misjudgement
  • … much more stuff…
• Logical Fallacies
  • Sunk Cost Fallacy that triggers Escalation of Commitments

Never Tried so far but they seem interesting

• Goal Factoring

  • Discovered thanks to Put a Num on It (Jacob Falkovich)
  • Rationalist technique
  • Also mentioned in a WSJ article

• Less Wrong

  • Decision Theories Primer by LW
  • Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Timeless Decision Theory
  • Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Functional Decision Theory

• Book “Decisive”:

  • Review by JD Roth
    • “there are four major villains when it comes to making good decisions”
    • WRAP process

• Book “Thinking in Bets”

  • James Altucher’s interview with Annie Duke

  P.s. The majority of the tools listed here are from the Mr.RIP YouTube Channel. Please take a look. Mr.RIP changed my life ;)